Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

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Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029??

Manifold Markets prijst No op 94% per 20 oktober 2026.

Wanneer wordt Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029? afgewikkeld?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029? wordt naar verwachting op 31 januari 2029 afgewikkeld.

Hoe wordt Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029? afgewikkeld?

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POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change+2.0pt86.1%
• 25 bps increase-1.0pt13.9%
• 25 bps decrease0%

+2 extra uitkomsten

Totaal volume

€ 45,7 mln.

24u volume

€ 1,5 mln.

KALSHI

CPI in October

• Above -0.1%98.5%
• Above 0.0%-4.0pt92.5%
• Above 0.1%-1.0pt83%

KALSHI

CPI YoY in November

• Above 3.3%97.5%
• Above 3.0%98.5%
• Above 3.1%98.5%

KALSHI

State of the economy at the end of 2026

• Overheating+1.9pt68.2%
• Soft landing-3.9pt27.3%
• Stagflation

KALSHI

US headline CPI inflation in December 2027

• Above 0.0%97%
• Above 0.5%94.5%
• Above 1.0%90.5%

POLYMARKET

October Inflation China - Annual

• 0.9% to 1.0%-14.5pt37.8%
• 0.7% to 0.8%+16.0pt35.7%
• 1.1% to 1.2%-3.0pt15.3%

+2 extra uitkomsten

• Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
• How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
• Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
• U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
• Core CPI in October
• Core CPI in November
• CPI in December
• CPI YoY in December
• Core CPI YoY in December
• Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026
• US economic state at the end of 2026?