Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 81.5%
Voorspellers
63
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 minuten geleden
11 sep 26, 00:44 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsWill there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description)
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PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
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PolymarketRegels
Models have been doing near-magic feats recently.
- Will an AI do Magic before the end of next year? (that we know of)
- The following things are considered magic:
- Standard temperature and pressure superconductor developed
- Factoring RSA-2048
- All of @jim's predictions come true
Open markten
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)79%
- New People (NL)-0.2pt17%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 23,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 192,2K
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027+1.0pt14%
- December7%
- September 30,1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 20,4 mln.
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)+3.0pt88.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.4pt6.9%
- New People (NL)-1.6pt3.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- December 31-3.0pt69%
- November 3064%
- October 31-3.0pt45%
+3 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill Russia announce a new forced mobilization by which date?
- December 31-1.0pt25%
- October 31-1.5pt13%
- September 30+0.9pt4%
POLYMARKETUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- 325–33944.1%
- 340–354+0.5pt23.5%
- 310–324+2.1pt17.6%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
- When will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together?
- Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
- Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description]?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 82% per 12 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description] afgewikkeld?
- Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description] wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description] afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Models have been doing near-magic feats recently.