Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 52.9%
Voorspellers
10
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd4 mrt 26, 18:50 UTC31 dec 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsHow long until we see the first report of a true AGI (Artificial General Intelligence)
Manifold MarketsWill AI be officially recognized as ‘AGI’ (Artificial General Intelligence) before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI achieve AGI?
KalshiWhen will any company achieve AGI?
KalshiRegels
Will at least one AI system publicly demonstrated before January 1, 2030 meet the criteria for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?
- RESOLUTION CRITERIA
- This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030, a single AI system is publicly demonstrated that satisfies ALL of the following conditions:
- Performs at or above human expert level on a broad range of cognitively demanding tasks spanning at least 5 distinct domains (e.g. mathematics, coding, science, writing, reasoning, medicine).
- Can learn and adapt to entirely new tasks with minimal instruction (few-shot or zero-shot), without task-specific retraining.
- Can autonomously plan and execute long-horizon tasks (multi-day, multi-step agentic work) that generate measurable real-world value.
