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Something from Eliezer's list of lethalities occurs. 83%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd8 jul 24, 14:29 UTC2 jan 30, 04:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Inverse of https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1?r=S3JhbnR6.
- Will not resolve.
- Primarily for users to explore particular lethalities.
- Please add responses.
- "poor" = human extinction or mass human suffering
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason??
- Manifold Markets prijst Something from Eliezer's list of lethalities occurs. op 83% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason? afgewikkeld?
- If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Inverse of https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1?r=S3JhbnR6.