Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 57.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 5 minuten geleden
16 sep 26, 05:37 UTC31 dec 29, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIs Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
KalshiWill the House pass the AI Kill Switch bill in 2026?
PredictItWhen will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?
KalshiRegels
The spirit of this question is that the AI should intentionally make a decision to kill someone and carry this out without a human in the loop, and that this would not even potentially be considered a reasonable decision under the circumstances by a human responsible for the AI.
- Examples which would NOT resolve YES:
- An AI used for military purposes kills someone who it believes to be a valid target, even if they turn out not to be (for example, friendly fire)
- An autonomous vehicle avoids a potentially fatal collision, causing a different fatal collision, even if it was aware that this would be the result
- An industrial robot accidentally kills someone without being aware that this would happen
- A human kills someone or commits suicide after talking to an AI (for example, "AI psychosis")
Open markten
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt76%
- New People (NL)-1.7pt20%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.1pt2%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 27,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 865,3K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.5pt96%
- Yes+0.5pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 36,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 466,5K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.1pt54.5%
- October 31-3.5pt30.9%
- September 30-2.0pt11.8%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-1.0pt21%
- October 31-4.5pt13%
- September 30-1.6pt4%
+9 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No83.2%
- Yes16.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 58 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 136,9K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 extra uitkomsten
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 58% per 17 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The spirit of this question is that the AI should intentionally make a decision to kill someone and carry this out without a human in the loop, and that this would not even potentially be considered a reasonable decision under the circumstances by a human responsible for the AI.