Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 63.7%
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Verouderd19 mrt 24, 20:05 UTC2 jan 30, 07:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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PolymarketRegels
Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify, the event must be a loss-of-control incident.
- Directed attacks (such as a nation-state executing an AI-powered cyberattack) are excluded, as the damage in those cases is intended by human operators.
- Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify as a rogue AI, there must be a loss of control over the AI system.
- This excludes directed and intentional attacks where the AI is operating under the control and intent of its deployers.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 241,3K
- 24u volume
- € 128K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 349,4K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
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- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 64% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify, the event must be a loss-of-control incident.