Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 62.2%
Voorspellers
12
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 minuten geleden
20 sep 26, 15:58 UTC30 sep 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
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PolymarketNext Claude Sonnet released by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Anthropic officially releases a new model in the "Sonnet" tier during the month of September 2026 (between September 1, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- To qualify for a YES resolution, the model must meet the following conditions:
- It must be officially announced by Anthropic or listed as a generally available or publicly accessible to claude.ai, Claude Code, or API users.
- It must explicitly feature "Sonnet" in its official name (e.g., Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 6).
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
+13 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 269,8K
- 24u volume
- € 199,9K
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,3 mln.
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 4,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 107,5K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,3 mln.
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 85K
- 24u volume
- € 65,3K
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 62.2% per 22 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 30 september 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria