Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling9h - 10h 20.9%Koploper van 20 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
53
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 57 minuten geleden
Vertraagd18 dec 25, 00:39 UTC1 dec 26, 00:37 UTC
Trends
0.4%
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Claude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
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PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiRegels
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Sonnet 4.6 thinking model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Sonnet 4.7 counts for the purpose of this market, if 4.6 is skipped.
- So does 4.75, but 5 would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon?
- Manifold Markets prijst 9h - 10h op 21% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon afgewikkeld?
- Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon wordt naar verwachting op 1 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Sonnet 4.6 thinking model to appear on METR's graph.