Zal ten minste 20% van de westerse democratieën ophouden de facto democratisch te zijn tegen 2034?
One-OffGeopolitiekPolitiekEurope7jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 85.2%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 18 uur geleden
Verouderd13 jun 23, 17:56 UTC2 mrt 34, 07:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
Capturing the chance of democratic backsliding, but with a significantly lower bar than a majority.
- Exact same resolution criteria as @chrisjbillington's market, but resolves YES if in any release of The Economist Democracy Index up to and including the 2033 release (likely to be published in early 2034), 20% or more of the listed countries are no longer listed as democracies, being listed instead either as a "hybrid" or "authoritarian" regimes.
- If there is any dispute on the resolution I will defer to @chrisjbillington if he's willing, or use my best interpretation of his criteria if he is not available.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/chrisjbillington/will-the-majority-of-western-democr)
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Zal ten minste 20% van de westerse democratieën ophouden de facto democratisch te zijn tegen 2034??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 85% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Zal ten minste 20% van de westerse democratieën ophouden de facto democratisch te zijn tegen 2034? afgewikkeld?
- Zal ten minste 20% van de westerse democratieën ophouden de facto democratisch te zijn tegen 2034? wordt naar verwachting op 2 maart 2034 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Zal ten minste 20% van de westerse democratieën ophouden de facto democratisch te zijn tegen 2034? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Capturing the chance of democratic backsliding, but with a significantly lower bar than a majority.