Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
GeopolitiekOne-Off7jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 94.8%
Voorspellers
92
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd11 jun 23, 05:42 UTC1 mrt 34, 12:59 UTC
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This market is an attempt to formalise @AlyssaVance's prediction that:
- Over the next decade, it is quite likely that most democratic Western countries will become fascist dictatorships
- Which she argues the case for in her Less Wrong post, The Dictatorship Problem.
- This market may not perfectly match Alyssa's intended prediction, and I invite her to clarify whether she would price this market at >50% based on her views.
- However, I will resolve this market based on its stated criteria, regardless of how well it turns out to match what Alyssa was going for.
- For the purposes of this market:
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 363K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 9,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 245,5K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 62,8 mln.
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 95% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034? afgewikkeld?
- Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034? wordt naar verwachting op 1 maart 2034 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market is an attempt to formalise @AlyssaVance's prediction that: