Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
GeopolitiekOne-OffSamenleving en cultuurGezondheid en geneeskundeEuropa8jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 05:41 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 50.9%
Voorspellers
7
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd6 jul 25, 00:09 UTC15 jun 35, 23:59 UTC
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Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
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Manifold MarketsAny of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Manifold MarketsRegels
Disasters which count
- Nuclear strike or accident
- Infrastructure collapse
- War also counts
- Deaths from old age, traffic, etc don't count unless related (many people die crashing cars due to seeing a Kaiju for example).
- Note: things that have always been that way probably won't count as a disaster.
