Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will Bayesian reveal a math problem he solved in Sept.??

Manifold Markets prijst Not in 2026 op 22.5% per 29 oktober 2026.

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When will Bayesian reveal a math problem he solved in Sept.?

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10 okt 26, 20:17 UTC1 jan 27, 06:00 UTC

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@Bayesian resolved @/Bayesian/will-i-solve-an-unsolved-math-probl-5ZR0n0LOlE on Sept. 25, 2026 (earning himself Ṁ19,822) but has not yet revealed what problem(s) he solved.

This market will resolve based on the day he names at least one problem he solved in a comment on that market.
If we reach Jan 1, 2027 without an answer, it will resolve "the named outcome."
Zvi's house rules apply: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ge3Jf5Hnon8wq4xqT/zvi-s-manifold-markets-house-rules

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When will Bayesian reveal a math problem he solved in Sept.?

When will Bayesian reveal a math problem he solved in Sept.?

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Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

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What will the biggest earthquake be on October 29, 2026?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?