Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 79.9%
Voorspellers
5
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 minuten geleden
3 sep 26, 01:24 UTC3 sep 00, 01:20 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a weak measurement experiment explicitly reconstruct a complex trajectory for quantum tunneling by EOY 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if a meaningful general formulation of Alexander Vilenkin's tunneling wave function of the universe—valid beyond highly symmetric, finite-dimensional "minisuperspace" toy models—is published in a reputable, peer-reviewed physics journal and achieves broad consensus within the quantum cosmology community prior to Vilenkin's death.
- The market will resolve to NO upon the death of Alexander Vilenkin (born May 13, 1949) if no such general formulation has been established and accepted by the physics community, or if the tunneling wave function remains mathematically ill-defined or restricted to simplified toy models.
- Resolution Guidelines:
- "Well-defined" requires a formulation that is proven to be mathematically consistent and free of pathological divergences or runaway perturbation instabilities in a general (non-perturbative) framework of quantum gravity.
- "Broad consensus" will be evaluated based on review papers, citations, and consensus among leading researchers in quantum cosmology (e.g., through prominent publications in journals like Physical Review D, Journal of High Energy Physics, or Classical and Quantum Gravity).
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 211K
- 24u volume
- € 110,5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 21,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
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- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
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- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 80% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time? afgewikkeld?
- Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time? wordt naar verwachting op 3 september 2100 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria