Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?
AITechWetenschapYearly1j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 96%
Voorspellers
63
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 23 uur geleden
Verouderd27 jan 26, 22:23 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Which lab will have the #1 model on Epoch AI's Capabilities Index (ECI) on November 6, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the top score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath: Erdős (68 open Erdős problems) be on November 7, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Manifold MarketsWhich High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?
Manifold MarketsWhich math problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketUS test scores in Math in 2026?
KalshiRegels
Resolves YES if a breakthrough-level problem from the Epoch AI FrontierMath Open Problems benchmark is solved.
- The benchmark classifies problems into four difficulty levels, with Breakthrough being the highest.
- Note that to avoid contamination solved problems will be removed from the benchmark.
- So a solution only counts for this market if an AI solves the problem before any human solution is found.
- Update 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Scope of problems: Includes any future breakthrough-level problems added to the benchmark, not just those currently listed.
- AI vs human collaboration: The creator will defer to Epoch AI's determination of whether AI gets credit for a solution, but will use their own judgment if Epoch AI is unclear.