Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?
AI4j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement. 23.6%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
47
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd19 dec 23, 18:43 UTC1 jan 31, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Manifold MarketsWill we have a scenario like "2030: Takeover" as defined in AI 2027 before the end of Q1, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?
ForecastExWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Thresholds as listed in: https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf, exact definitions listed there on December 19, 2023 to be used.
- If I believe with 90%+ confidence that one of these conditions has been met first, including in testing or training of an unreleased system, even if that capability is not available to the public, I will pick that as the winner.
- If the same system does more than one of them at the same time, and it is unclear which one came first, I will choose the one whose requirements I feel was most impressively exceeded, so as to pick one winner.
- If a model would be High risk under a definition, but is not due to mitigations taken, then that counts as high risk, even if all publicly available versions have mitigations in place.
- If we have no knowledge of any success of any such threshold by 1 Jan 2030, then that answer wins, to ensure this eventually resolves.
- The system that does this can be made by anyone, not only OpenAI.
Open markten
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.3pt61.4%
- ChatGPT22.8%
- Grok-2.0pt5.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 89,2K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-1.0pt62.6%
- 2027-1.5pt30.3%
- 2026-2.5pt7.1%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,-4.0pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+7.0pt79%
- claude-opus-5-max+2.0pt5%
- claude-opus-5-high-2.0pt4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202797%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 202794%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,4 mln.
POLYMARKETGemini 4.0 released by which date?
- November 30-3.0pt87%
- October 31-5.0pt72%
- September 30-18.0pt11%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released??
- Manifold Markets prijst Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement. op 24% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released? afgewikkeld?
- Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2031 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Thresholds as listed in: https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf, exact definitions listed there on December 19, 2023 to be used.