Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 94.4%
Voorspellers
6
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd11 okt 25, 00:06 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor be removed from the royal line of succession?
KalshiPedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by which date?
PolymarketCarles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?
PolymarketSpain snap election called in 2026?
PolymarketWill Spain ban bullfighting before 2027?
KalshiWill the US announce in 2026 it is closing a military base in Germany or Spain?
PredictItRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain ceases to be a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by January 1, 2027.
- This includes, but is not limited to, a formal withdrawal by Spain in accordance with Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty, or an explicit, official, and universally recognized declaration by NATO that Spain is no longer a member state.
- The market will resolve to "No" if Spain remains a NATO member as of January 1, 2027.
- Spain became the 16th member of NATO on May 30, 1982.
- Since its accession, Spain has been a committed ally, participating in NATO's political and military structures.
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 470,8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 35,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 100,1K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Spain removed from NATO by 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 94% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Spain removed from NATO by 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Spain removed from NATO by 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Spain removed from NATO by 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria