Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 79.3%
Voorspellers
36
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd28 mei 23, 09:50 UTC1 jan 01, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIs the Riemann hypothesis correct?
Manifold MarketsHow will the universe end?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves once 90% of cosmologists and theoretical physicists agree one way or the other, according to multiple reputable surveys taken at least 70 years after market creation.
- So the market must remain open for at least 70 years (until May 28, 2093) to allow time for the idea to be considered thoroughly.
- After this, the market resolves as soon as at least 90% expert consensus is reached on the matter according to two or more independent surveys.
- The market does not resolve if some reputable surveys say 90% of experts think YES and some say that 90% think NO simultaneously (i.e., the survey findings have to come to the same conclusions on what the consensus is).
- It will only resolve once all up-to-date surveys agree on the consensus.
- Some info on the mathematical universe hypothesis can be found here.
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 211K
- 24u volume
- € 110,5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 21,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Is Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 79% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Is Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct? afgewikkeld?
- Is Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2501 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Is Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves once 90% of cosmologists and theoretical physicists agree one way or the other, according to multiple reputable surveys taken at least 70 years after market creation.