Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingIt won't, because <insert engineering scheme here> 43%Koploper van 11 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
24
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 uur geleden
Verouderd29 sep 22, 15:30 UTC1 jan 00, 05:00 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030?
Manifold MarketsDoes the universe rotate?
Manifold MarketsIs Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRegels
Resolves once there's a strong scientific consensus on the answer, or a consensus that we can't know the answer until it happens.
- In the latter case, I'll resolve with equal probability to all the options that haven't been ruled out.
- Duplicate answers will be ignored, only the first to be submitted counts.
- Catch-all answers are ignored, I'll resolve to a more specific one.
Open markten
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 103,1K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Totaal volume
- € 57,4K
- 24u volume
- € 57,4K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Totaal volume
- € 817,9K
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor How will the universe end??
- Manifold Markets prijst It won't, because <insert engineering scheme here> op 43% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt How will the universe end? afgewikkeld?
- How will the universe end? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2200 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt How will the universe end? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves once there's a strong scientific consensus on the answer, or a consensus that we can't know the answer until it happens.