In which month(s) will there be at least 3 consecutive days with sirens in Israel caused by Iranian missiles?
GeopolitiekOne-OffMidden-Oosten2mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNovember 2026 43.4%Koploper van 17 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
6
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+5.8 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd1 aug 26, 18:37 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES for any month in which there are at least three consecutive calendar days (using Israel Standard Time, IST) where air raid sirens or red alerts are triggered in any part of Israel by missiles or drones launched directly from Iranian territory.
- Otherwise, those months will resolve to NO.
- For the purposes of this market:
- "Sirens" refers to official alerts (Tzeva Adom / Red Alert) or air raid sirens issued by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Home Front Command (Pikud HaOref).
- "Caused by Iranian missiles" requires that the projectiles (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or explosive UAVs/drones) were launched directly from Iranian soil.