Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 11:33 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingAI winter 33.1%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
29
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 minuten geleden
2 jul 25, 14:51 UTC30 dec 34, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
In which years will humanity still exist? (2050 to 1 million AD)
Manifold MarketsWill humanity still exist in 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump still be alive at the beginning of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden still be alive at the beginning of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?
Manifold MarketsRegels
By default, continued AI development is assumed to lead to existential catastrophe.
- If we survive until 2035, this market asks: what kind of world are we in?
- This is a retrospective counterfactual question: imagine it is January 1st, 2035, and humanity is still alive.
- What explains our survival?
- Resolution Criteria: On December 30th, 2035, this market will resolve to the option that best describes the primary reason humanity avoided extinction by that date.
- Resolution will be based on public evidence and expert consensus to the extent possible.
