Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
GeopolitiekAIOne-OffEuropeRegelgevingChinaPolitiek7jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 76.8%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd24 mrt 26, 14:41 UTC31 dec 33, 23:59 UTC
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This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2034, there is a formal, publicly announced international agreement or coordinated policy that constitutes a moratorium on frontier AGI development, meeting the criteria below.
- The concept of “moratorium” here refers to a halt or prohibition on training or deploying frontier AI systems at or beyond certain established threshold (may it be capabilies, scale, speed, or something else meanigfully correlated with general capabilities), combined with serious enforcement mechanisms, not merely voluntary guidelines or safety recommendations.
- Core Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if ALL of the following conditions are met:
- Substance: Actual Moratorium
- A policy, treaty, or coordinated set of national policies explicitly aims to:
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 77% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? afgewikkeld?
- Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2033 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2034, there is a formal, publicly announced international agreement or coordinated policy that constitutes a moratorium on frontier AGI development, meeting the criteria below.