Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
GeopolitiekAIOne-OffEuropaRegelgevingChinaPolitiek7j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 23:51 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 16 uur geleden
Verouderd24 mrt 26, 14:41 UTC31 dec 33, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2034, there is a formal, publicly announced international agreement or coordinated policy that constitutes a moratorium on frontier AGI development, meeting the criteria below.
- The concept of “moratorium” here refers to a halt or prohibition on training or deploying frontier AI systems at or beyond certain established threshold (may it be capabilies, scale, speed, or something else meanigfully correlated with general capabilities), combined with serious enforcement mechanisms, not merely voluntary guidelines or safety recommendations.
- Core Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if ALL of the following conditions are met:
- Substance: Actual Moratorium
- A policy, treaty, or coordinated set of national policies explicitly aims to: