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Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 18:26 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2050 AD 89.2%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
20
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
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Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
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KalshiRegels
I'm interested in how long Manifold thinks humanity will have a non-negligible chance of surviving.
- Although many people here are pretty doomy, most would probably agree we don't have a negligible chance of living to 2050 or 2100.
- But how long does that hold?
- If we successfully get past AGI, our per-year probability of extinction will probably drastically decrease.
- Is this enough to carry us all the way to the heat death of the universe, or will even human-aligned AGI be unable to defend against every threat to the survival of humanity?
- I would count "humanity" as any group of entities that generally consider themselves to share a common identity with people living today, passed down via an unbroken chain of succession.