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  3. First year a specific AI model/framework is named as Time's Person of the Year
Manifold Markets

First year a specific AI model/framework is named as Time's Person of the Year

AITechYearly4j
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsGeen KYC
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Manifold Markets
2025 0.9%
Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
Voorspellers

5

Vraagtype

multiple choice

Methodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Brontype

Voorspelling

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 6 dagen geleden

Verouderd
26 jul 25, 0:1731 dec 30, 23:59

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Gekozen uitkomst

20251%

Regels

"OpenAI" does not count

Manifold Markets
  • "AI" does not count
  • "GPT-5" would count, even as an amalgam of other models
  • "OpenAI ChatGPT Agent" would count
  • Anything messier than stated here may resolve subjectively

Gerelateerde Markten

Manifold Markets

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

€ 5,6K
Google: 14.5%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

€ 1,9K
Ja: 6%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

€ 984
None in 2026: 70%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

€ 479,3
Ja: 26%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Best AI at the end of 2026?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

€ 439,2
Claude: 67%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

€ 216,5
Ja: 19.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Actief in deze onderwerpen

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Regels

"OpenAI" does not count

Manifold Markets
  • "AI" does not count
  • "GPT-5" would count, even as an amalgam of other models
  • "OpenAI ChatGPT Agent" would count
  • Anything messier than stated here may resolve subjectively