Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling≥$0.8T 100%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
54
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
-0.6 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd22 apr 26, 03:49 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for Anthropic credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-12-31.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-12-31 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).
