Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling≥$0.6T 100%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
11
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd22 apr 26, 03:49 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Anthropic highest valuation by end of December 2026
Manifold MarketsSpaceX highest valuation by end of December 2026
Manifold MarketsOpenAI highest valuation by end of September 2026
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill Anduril's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-12-31.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-12-31 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).
Open markten
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 12,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 90,5K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-2.0pt51%
- Before Oct 1, 202749%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-6.0pt41%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 4,8 mln.
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 202754%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 877K
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T+0.5pt18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt17.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202795%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
- Before Apr 1, 202792%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 6,5K
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor OpenAI highest valuation by end of December 2026?
- Manifold Markets prijst ≥$0.6T op 100% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt OpenAI highest valuation by end of December 2026 afgewikkeld?
- OpenAI highest valuation by end of December 2026 wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt OpenAI highest valuation by end of December 2026 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-12-31.