KalshiBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereistGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdMiddenprijs van geselecteerd orderboek
Before Jan 1, 2029 · —
Geselecteerd orderboek laden…
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Opgeslagen prijs
Before Jan 1, 2029 69%Koploper van 3 uitkomsten
Before Jan 1, 2029 69%Marktkwaliteit
39 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
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Open interest
US$ 1,2K
Lage open interestBied / Laat
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Before Jan 1, 2029Spread
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Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 minuten geleden
17 sep 26, 04:00 UTC31 dec 26, 18:59 UTC
Grafiek en wijzigingen tonen opgeslagen historische kansen, niet het geselecteerde actuele orderboek.
Trends
Geselecteerde rij: middenprijs van het orderboek. Andere rijen: opgeslagen, mogelijk genormaliseerde referenties; wijzigingen over 24 uur gebruiken opgeslagen historie.
Voorwaarden van het handelsplatform
Bron: Kalshi
Deze voorwaarden zijn ter informatie; voor gesimuleerd handelen bij CoinRithm gelden eigen regels.
- Vervroegde sluiting:
- Ja
- Afwikkelingstermijn:
- 30m (ter informatie)
Marktdiepte · Before Jan 1, 2029
Geselecteerd orderboek laden…
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
If GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
PolymarketSometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?
KalshiRegels
If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The statement must describe an achieved capability in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, prompt, skill, or benchmark-only improvements do not qualify. Humans may provide high-level goals, resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or technical solution. The capability must be affirmatively described as currently achieved in an official company communication or by an executive or research leader speaking about the company's capabilities. Future plans, speculation, offhand remarks, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims do not qualify. A public release, named model, technical demonstration, or independent verification is not required.
Regels per uitkomst
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.