When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
AIOne-Off8jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingBefore 2035 78.8%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
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6
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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7d wijziging
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Verouderd30 jul 25, 15:46 UTC1 jan 35, 16:44 UTC
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As reported by OpenAI.
- For more detail about criteria, though they closely track the intuitive spirit of the question, see the excellent Metaculus question that is the source of this market:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/risk/38787/dates-that-openai-reports-an-ai-reached-these-self-improvement-risk-levels/
- Background info (from Metaculus):
- OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, version 2, from April 15th 2025, defines the AI Self-improvement risk category aimed at tracking:
- The ability of an AI system to accelerate AI research, including to increase the system’s own capability.
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]?
- Manifold Markets prijst Before 2035 op 79% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] afgewikkeld?
- When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2035 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: As reported by OpenAI.