Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingBefore H2 2030 81.4%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
11
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd30 jul 25, 15:41 UTC30 jul 28, 15:31 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
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Manifold MarketsRegels
As reported by OpenAI.
- For more detail about criteria, though they closely track the intuitive spirit of the question, see the excellent Metaculus question that is the source of this market:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/risk/38787/dates-that-openai-reports-an-ai-reached-these-self-improvement-risk-levels/
- Background info (from Metaculus):
- OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, version 2, from April 15th 2025, defines the AI Self-improvement risk category aimed at tracking:
- The ability of an AI system to accelerate AI research, including to increase the system’s own capability.