Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
EconomieQuarterly2mnd
FutuurBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensHuidige impliciete kans
Nee 91%
Nee 91%Marktkwaliteit
33 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
—
Liquiditeit
€ 1,1K
Lage liquiditeitHandelaren
4
Reacties
0
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 minuut geleden
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KalshiRegels
This market predicts whether the United States will report negative real GDP growth in at least one of the first three quarters of 2026 (Q1 2026, Q2 2026, or Q3 2026).
- If the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports a seasonally adjusted, annualized real GDP growth rate of less than 0% for any of Q1 2026, Q2 2026, or Q3 2026 — based on the BEA's third (final) estimate for that quarter, or the most recent published estimate available by December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC — this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The Primary Designated Source is the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Gross Domestic Product release.
- Resolution uses the third estimate (final) where available, otherwise the most recent BEA estimate for the quarter as of December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC.
- A consensus of credible reporting (Reuters, AP, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg) may confirm the BEA figures.