PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 95%
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
7,9K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
4.0% / 5.8%
Spread
1.8 pt
Spread strettoCommenti
21
Variazione 7g
-6.6 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 minuti fa
10 giu 26, 00:00 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will French journalist Christophe Gleizes be pardoned or released from Algerian detention before December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is convicted, will he be pardoned? (2028)
Manifold MarketsWill SBF be pardoned?
Manifold MarketsMaduro Prison Time?
PolymarketAny Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
PolymarketWill Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by which date?
PolymarketRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
- A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
- Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
- The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mld €
- Volume 24h
- 2,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt16%
- Ron DeSantis-0.1pt3%
+39 altri esiti
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro-33.7pt51%
- Delcy Rodríguez+29.5pt42%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 altri esiti
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.3pt9.9%
- Volume totale
- 29,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 621,6K €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt94%
- Yes-2.0pt6%
- Volume totale
- 19,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 488,8K €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt59%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30%
- Republicans sweep-1.3pt10%
+1 altri esiti
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- What will Trump say this week?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026??
- Polymarket quota No al 95% al 20 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026??
- Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET.