Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?
One-OffIATecnologia9a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 72.3%
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46
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Aggiornato 39 minuti fa
3 giu 24, 14:10 UTC1 gen 36, 22:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
Criteria for Resolution:
- Claim of Probability: Eliezer Yudkowsky must make a public claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim is made.
- The claim must be made in all seriousness, not as a joke or sarcasm.
- Types of Qualifying Statements: Statements such as "certain”, "almost sure”, "pretty certain”, "almost inevitable", or any similar expressions that indicate a probability of higher than 90% will qualify, beyond explicit quantitative claims.
- If resolution criteria are not met, the market will resolve NO on January 1, 2036.
- Verification of Ambiguity:
