Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 08:35 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
No 66.6%
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31
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto22 dic 23, 22:23 UTC1 gen 30, 22:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will we discover evidence for the past or present life on Mars?
Manifold MarketsBy 2100, will there be scientific consensus supporting the existence of past or present life on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill signs of past or present life be found on the Jovian moon Europa by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill we discover extraterrestrial life (past or present) anywhere in the solar system by EOY 2100?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRegole
The question will resolve to YES if a strong evidence is found for life to have existed on Mars at any point in its history.
- The evidence should be direct, comparable to our evidence for life on Earth 3.4 Gy ago (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earliest_known_life_forms).
- Lifeforms introduced by humans intentionally or otherwise don't count.