Previsione della comunità attuale
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 12 minuti fa
27 feb 24, 17:13 UTC2 gen 00, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will we discover evidence for the past or present life on Mars before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill we discover evidence for the past or present life on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill signs of past or present life be found on the Jovian moon Europa by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill there be scientific consensus of the existence of silicon based forms of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2060?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRegole
Life must originate before 1971 (can't have arrived via a human prope, though panspermia by other means still qualifies).
- Resolves with whatever manifold considers scientific consensus in 2100 - the equivalent of today’s "resolves with wikipedia".