Will Trump, Xi and Putin hold a three-way in-person meeting by November 22, 2026?
One-OffGeopoliticaPoliticaPolitica USARussia / UcrainaCina1mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 88.9%
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Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto15 ott 26, 18:23 UTC22 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves **YES** if Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin hold an **in-person three-way meeting** between now and **November 22, 2026 (23:59 UTC)**, as reported by Reuters or AP. **What counts:** a meeting, talks or summit session where the three leaders meet together **as a trio**, with only the US, Chinese and Russian delegations taking part.
- A three-way meeting held on the sidelines of the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen (Nov 18–19, 2026) counts.
- So does one held anywhere else in this window. **What does NOT count:** - All three being in the same room only because of the full APEC plenary, the leaders' retreat, a gala dinner or the APEC family photo with the other member economies. - Separate bilateral meetings (Trump–Xi, Xi–Putin, Trump–Putin), even on the same day. - A video call, or a meeting where any one of the three takes part remotely. - A brief informal chat or handshake among the three that Reuters/AP do not describe as a meeting or talks among the three. **Background:** Russia has indicated Putin will attend APEC in Shenzhen.
- Trump has said he plans to return to China for "a big conference" (the White House has not formally announced the trip as of Oct 15).
- Asked in September whether Trump and Putin had discussed a three-way meeting with Xi, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said "Undoubtedly ... there will be such an opportunity." If the reporting is ambiguous, I'll go with Reuters'/AP's own description of the event.
- I won't bet in this market for its first week.
