Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2026?
GeopoliticaOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 86.8%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto1 gen 26, 02:17 UTC1 gen 27, 20:59 UTC
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What counts as "fighting"?
- - Clashes between organized armed groups using military weapons (Automatic rifles, machine guns, rockets, armored vehicles, etc.).
- - Example: Prigozhin’s 2023 rebellion in Rostov (seizing military sites, clashes with border guards).
- - Does NOT count:
- - Terrorist attacks targeting civilians (e.g., Crocus City Hall).
- - Arson, sabotage, or protests **unless** the group:
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- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 87% al 8 settembre 2026.
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- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: What counts as "fighting"?