Will there be a second shooting event related to the Bondi Beach mass shooting within one year?
One-OffCriminalità e giustiziaSocietà e cultura1mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 97.5%
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Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto14 dic 25, 11:41 UTC14 dic 26, 11:38 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
On the 14th of December 2025, a terrorist mass shooting was carried out by two men at Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia, targeting a Jewish community during a large Hannukah celebration
- This is the largest mass shooting in Australia since the Port Arthur massacre almost 30 years ago, with 16 dead at the time of writing
- I'll define a shooting event as one in which shots are fired at people, though not requiring deaths or injuries
- If a shooting event occurs, resolution (re: whether it's related to the Bondi Beach shooting) will be based on official police statements
- I won't bet on this question in case resolution is ambiguous
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