Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?
Salute e medicinaOne-Off1a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 04:28 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 94.6%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto7 ott 24, 21:42 UTC2 gen 28, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Like this one in the UK in the 80s and 90s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_BSE_outbreak
- Must be above base rate in some sense to be an outbreak.
