Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 77.9%
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37
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 28 minuti fa
28 apr 24, 11:11 UTC31 dic 45, 19:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?
Manifold MarketsIs Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?
Manifold MarketsWill All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
KalshiHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
PolymarketWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
KalshiRegole
Currently all prion diseases are considered fatal and incurable.
- I'll resolve yes if, by the end of 31 December 2045, there's a human being who was previously infected with prion disease (previously fatal and incurable) and has been cured of it, according to widespread medical consensus.
- Even if there are lingering side effects, I will resolve YES if the consensus is that death of said disease is no longer inevitable for that person.
- ("Inevitable" as in "the person is certain to die of said disease unless something else kills them first")
- If a human has definitely been cured but the relevant medical intervention is hard or impossible to replicate, it's enough to resolve YES anyway.
- Something like the Berlin patient (but for a prion disease instead of HIV) would trigger a YES resolution.
Mercati aperti
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volume totale
- 15,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 18,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 altri esiti
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volume totale
- 916K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5K €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 863,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 1K €
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
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- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will at least one human be cured of a prion disease by EOY 2045??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 78% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will at least one human be cured of a prion disease by EOY 2045??
- Will at least one human be cured of a prion disease by EOY 2045? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2045.
- Come viene liquidato Will at least one human be cured of a prion disease by EOY 2045??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Currently all prion diseases are considered fatal and incurable.