Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029?
InflationOne-OffMacro & Economy2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 85.8%
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Aggiornato 21 ore fa
Obsoleto2 set 26, 19:55 UTC31 ago 29, 23:59 UTC
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Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?
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ForecastExADP employment change in Nov 2026?
KalshiRegole
Resolves YES if the first published seasonally adjusted August 2029 value of FRED series LNS12300060 (Employment-Population Ratio – 25–54 Yrs.) is below 50.0%.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- We will use the first published value for August 2029, ignoring subsequent revisions.
- If no August 2029 value has been published by December 31, 2029, the bet is void and this market will be canceled.
- (This market tracks a charity bet between Andy McKenzie and Jeff Kaufman. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BQksdkrtXDbr3CtoE/ai-tweets?commentId=ZbgAGmbcnKZWtsgh6)
Mercati aperti
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 91 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 569,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 359,2K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 altri esiti
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 79,7K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 18,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 7,3K €
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 86% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029??
- Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 agosto 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if the first published seasonally adjusted August 2029 value of FRED series LNS12300060 (Employment-Population Ratio – 25–54 Yrs.) is below 50.0%.