PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
2.4% 37.2%+1.5ptIn testa tra 10 esitiCorretto per il margine: le quote grezze sommavano oltre il 100% e sono state normalizzate.
Qualita del mercato
58 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
522,5 €
Liquidità
9K €
Liquidità mediaSpread
3.0 pt
Spread moderatoComments
0
Variazione 7g
+2.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
12 ago 26, 14:1711 set 26, 3:59
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Regole
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
- The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
- Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
- Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%).
- Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change-4.0pt68.3%
- 25 bps increase+4.0pt30.7%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 36,8 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,5 Mln €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+2.0pt51.5%
- No-2.0pt48.5%
- Volume totale
- 6,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 64,4K €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 106,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 13,5K €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting41%
- September Meeting+3.5pt30%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHICPI-U index in August
- Above 334.30095%
- Above 334.35095%
- Above 334.450+3.0pt94%
+22 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 45,6K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI core in October
- Above 0.1%98%
- Above 0.2%98%
- Above 0.0%66%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 6,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,5K €
- How high will inflation get this year?
- US shelter CPI in August
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Annual
- PPI YoY - August 2026
- South Africa inflation rate MoM for August
- US electricity price in August
- Core PCE YoY - July 2026
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Core CPI YoY - August 2026?
- Polymarket quota 2.4% al 37% al 21 agosto 2026.
- Quando si risolve Core CPI YoY - August 2026?
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026 dovrebbe risolversi il 11 settembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Core CPI YoY - August 2026?
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Dove altro è quotato Core CPI YoY - August 2026?
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Kalshi.