Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 81.2%
Previsori
25
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto12 giu 24, 19:30 UTC1 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
KalshiBy December 31, 2026, Apple will acquire, merge with, or otherwise legally take control of Anthropic.
Manifold MarketsWill the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US take control of any part of Greenland?
KalshiWill the US take control of any part of Canada?
KalshiRegole
"US government" includes all branches of federal and state government, including all executive departments (e.g. armed forces, Justice Department) and agencies responsible to them (e.g. FBI, NSA).
- "take control" means direct managerial authority of Anthropic or over its major technologies, or the exercise of such authority. "Control" does not need to be complete but must be dominant.
- If control of a major technology, the control should be somewhat exclusive.
- "major technologies" means frontier or near-frontier AI models, or otherwise unambiguously "major" technologies.
- I will use reasonable judgement to adjudicate edge cases.
- Examples that count:
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 132,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 322,4K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 81% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030??
- Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: "US government" includes all branches of federal and state government, including all executive departments (e.g. armed forces, Justice Department) and agencies responsible to them (e.g. FBI, NSA).