Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 81.2%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 19 ore fa
Obsoleto12 giu 24, 19:30 UTC1 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
KalshiWill Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy December 31, 2026, Apple will acquire, merge with, or otherwise legally take control of Anthropic.
Manifold MarketsWill the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US take control of any part of Greenland?
KalshiRegole
"US government" includes all branches of federal and state government, including all executive departments (e.g. armed forces, Justice Department) and agencies responsible to them (e.g. FBI, NSA).
- "take control" means direct managerial authority of Anthropic or over its major technologies, or the exercise of such authority. "Control" does not need to be complete but must be dominant.
- If control of a major technology, the control should be somewhat exclusive.
- "major technologies" means frontier or near-frontier AI models, or otherwise unambiguously "major" technologies.
- I will use reasonable judgement to adjudicate edge cases.
- Examples that count:
