Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 75.1%
Previsori
7
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo30 giu 26, 22:53 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2028, a large language model developed by a Chinese-headquartered organization achieves a strictly higher Elo rating than the highest-rated model developed by a US-headquartered organization on the official LMArena Overall Text Leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Primary Source of Truth: The Overall Text Arena Leaderboard hosted by LMArena (formerly LMSYS Chatbot Arena) at lmarena.ai or its official Hugging Face Space.
- Corporate Headquarter Classification:
- Chinese-headquartered developers include, but are not limited to: DeepSeek, Alibaba (Qwen), ByteDance (Doubao), Tencent (Hunyuan), Baidu (Ernie), Zhipu AI (GLM), 01.AI (Yi), and Moonshot AI (Kimi).