Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?
GeopoliticaOne-OffMedio Oriente2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 60.9%
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6
Tipo di domanda
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 31 minuti fa
12 ago 26, 16:29 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the first round of official direct or indirect diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran (including mediated talks via third parties like Oman, Qatar, or Pakistan) occurring on or after August 3, 2026, results in a ceasefire agreement that successfully lasts for at least 30 consecutive days.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Detailed Rules for Resolution:
- Eligible Negotiations: The negotiations must be widely recognized by major international media outlets as official diplomatic efforts (whether direct or indirect/mediated) between representatives of the U.S. and Iran aimed at de-escalation, conflict resolution, or establishing a truce.
- Ceasefire Definition: The negotiations must result in a mutually agreed ceasefire or pause in hostilities.