Il conflitto israelo-Hamas sarà descritto come un genocidio tra 10 anni (2034)?
One-OffMedio Oriente7aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 65.6%
Previsori
89
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo15 gen 24, 02:14 UTC2 gen 34, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the current Israel-Hamas conflict last ten years, as some senior Israeli officials warned during Biden's trip?
Manifold MarketsWill the first intelligent extraterrestrial that humanity encounters have what would be commonly described as eyes?
Manifold MarketsIn 2030, will the government of Syria be better described as being closer to that of the UAE or Afghanistan?
Manifold MarketsGaza genocide still labeled as genocide by Wikipedia in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketRegole
At the start of 2034 will the consensus by historians or other credible sources will the Israel Hamas conflict be described as genocide.
- Any or action directly leading from this conflict will also count.
- But in general it should involve either Israel or Palestine.
- Since this is a bit vague a lot of conversation will need to be had in the comments.
- For a baseline if under a list of genocides Wikipedia has a genocide involving Israel and Palestine (It would have to start after or during 2023) this would resolve yes.
- If the United Nations votes and considers events involving Israel and Palestine a genocide this would also resolve yes.
