Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 62%
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87
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto15 gen 24, 02:14 UTC2 gen 34, 04:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the current Israel-Hamas conflict last ten years, as some senior Israeli officials warned during Biden's trip?
Manifold MarketsWill Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?
Manifold MarketsGaza genocide still labeled as genocide by Wikipedia in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketRegole
At the start of 2034 will the consensus by historians or other credible sources will the Israel Hamas conflict be described as genocide.
- Any or action directly leading from this conflict will also count.
- But in general it should involve either Israel or Palestine.
- Since this is a bit vague a lot of conversation will need to be had in the comments.
- For a baseline if under a list of genocides Wikipedia has a genocide involving Israel and Palestine (It would have to start after or during 2023) this would resolve yes.
- If the United Nations votes and considers events involving Israel and Palestine a genocide this would also resolve yes.
Mercati aperti
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 23,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 312,6K €
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Volume totale
- 6,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 153,3K €
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Il conflitto israelo-Hamas sarà descritto come un genocidio tra 10 anni (2034)??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 62% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Il conflitto israelo-Hamas sarà descritto come un genocidio tra 10 anni (2034)??
- Il conflitto israelo-Hamas sarà descritto come un genocidio tra 10 anni (2034)? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2034.
- Come viene liquidato Il conflitto israelo-Hamas sarà descritto come un genocidio tra 10 anni (2034)??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: At the start of 2034 will the consensus by historians or other credible sources will the Israel Hamas conflict be described as genocide.