Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 95.8%
Previsori
47
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto4 ago 24, 09:49 UTC2 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
PolymarketWill US withdraw from NATO by which date?
PolymarketWill Israel withdraw from the buffer zone with Syria by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsForeign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketWill Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Will the IDF fully withdraw all troops from Gaza at any point between now and the end of 2026? If the IDF withdraws and then re-enters, this will still resolve Yes.
- If any IDF presence remains, it will not be considered a full withdrawal.
- IDF troop presence within a buffer zone inside Gaza would still count as IDF presence in Gaza.
- I will not bet on this market.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 96% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026??
- Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Will the IDF fully withdraw all troops from Gaza at any point between now and the end of 2026? If the IDF withdraws and then re-enters, this will still resolve Yes.