Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 72%
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42
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 minuti fa
9 feb 23, 18:33 UTC10 feb 95, 00:00 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
KalshiWho will be the next person to land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next person be to land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill Artemis 3 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRegole
I often wonder this.
- The first person is the "Neil Armstrong" of Mars: the one who steps onto the planet first, is feted as the "first" etc. Resolves when they die or return to Earth.
- Close date updated to 2095-02-10 12:00 am
Mercati aperti
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume totale
- 57,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,9K €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 72% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth??
- Will the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth? dovrebbe risolversi il 10 febbraio 2095.
- Come viene liquidato Will the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: I often wonder this.