Will the first instance of an AI breakout that cannot be brought back under human control result in more than 1,000,000 deaths?
GeopoliticaOne-OffSalute e medicina4a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 79.6%
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19
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto21 lug 22, 16:28 UTC29 dic 30, 04:59 UTC
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Upon an AI running uncontrolled for over a month, and showing significant real-world effects (including market crashes, server crashes or internet denial, curing cancer, etc.) will at least 1,000,000 humans die as a fairly direct result by the end of 60 days post discovery (specifically, the time that we notice the AI running wild, not the development of the code or the actual breakout), and from the actions of the AI and not a human response (e.g., the US nuking Moscow to take out key military servers is all on the humans, not the AI)? Uncontrolled in this case will mean not fully contained.
- This will be a judgement call on my part.
- Any Manifold market admin may resolve this on my behalf if the conditions are met and there is reason to believe that I am dead.
