Will the Ban Superintelligence Act pass by the end of 2027?
One-OffRegolamentazioneIACriminalità e giustizia1aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 82.8%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 21 minuti fa
3 set 26, 16:57 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Bernie Sanders and Greg Casar have announced plans to introduce a bill banning the development of artificial superintelligence and pausing AI development until a federal regulatory body has been set up.
- This will resolve YES if some version of their bill is singed into law before EOY 2027, and will also resolve YES if an equivalent bill is signed into law.
- It will fail at EOY 2027 if no bill has been signed into law that bans development of ASI.
- Update 2026-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An equivalent bill is defined by the following:
- It does not need to include specific penalties like 20-year prison sentences or a corporate death penalty.
- It must make an earnest effort at banning all development of superintelligence by United States companies.
