Previsione della comunità attuale
Raise by >5% 64.2%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
22
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 22 ore fa
Obsoleto1 apr 24, 00:04 UTC2 gen 00, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich central banks will raise interest rates in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Fed raise interest rates in 2027?
Manifold MarketsECB Interest Rates: September 2026
PolymarketECB Interest Rates: October 2026
PolymarketECB Interest Rates: September 2026
LimitlessRegole
Measured with the 10-yr real interest rate as calculated by the St-Louis Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y
- Baseline: Average of the 10-yr real interest rate.
- I will average the rate over the year preceding the release of Strong AI.
- I will then average the same rate, starting one year after the release of said strong AI.
- This resolves at T + 2 yr after the release of strong AI.
- Will extend indefinitely.
Mercati aperti
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 35 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 altri esiti
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42%
- Hike >25bps-2.0pt2.4%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.4pt2%
+10 altri esiti
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.6pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.1pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.5pt2%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates??
- Manifold Markets quota Raise by >5% al 64% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates??
- Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2100.
- Come viene liquidato Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Measured with the 10-yr real interest rate as calculated by the St-Louis Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y