Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 78.1%
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 47 minuti fa
In ritardo10 giu 26, 23:05 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
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Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 15?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?
FutuurSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if SpaceX successfully launches at least one non-SpaceX payload on a Starship mission before January 1, 2030 (UTC).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- For the purposes of this market, the following definitions and rules apply:
- Non-SpaceX Payload: Any active, functional payload—including commercial or government satellites, deep-space probes, space station modules, or scientific instruments—that is owned, operated, or primary-contracted by an entity other than SpaceX (such as NASA, the U.S. Department of Defense, a foreign space agency, a university, or a third-party commercial operator).
- Crewed & Lunar Missions:
